Basically I quite agree with you. Your concept seems similar with me. As I say Lelouch likes to assume things and he might not see clearly about others. But I do believe he has the capabiltity to see through things. It just depends on whether he wanna acknowledge or ignore it. Sometimes he can supress his feelings very well about certain things. Rolo as an example, it's because he can see clearly about Rolo that's why he can manipulate him by using his weakness. Lelouch seems understand very well about Rolo past, he has the idea what is it but that might not same with his action.
About Lelouch hates betrayal, I have my own theory. Sometimes love and hate are just crossing a line. When you love someone very much eventually it might become hate. It's pretty much a lot of mix feelings inside. So for Lelouch, he hates it but he has no choice to do the same thing. More precisely, it's not no choice but he choose it. Just like last episode, he say he'll become evil to defeat the even bigger evil. Lelouch definitely hates evil right? He hates there're always unjustice around and people using power toward the weakling. But to win against those people he realize he need the power also and do the same thing he hates. He become the evil he hates very much. But he don't care as long as after his battle everything will follow like his ideal. Lelouch is someone who can achieve his goals by no mean, including the ways he hates. So he's embracing betrayal now but doesn't means that he don't hates it.
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About Lelouch hates betrayal, I have my own theory. Sometimes love and hate are just crossing a line. When you love someone very much eventually it might become hate. It's pretty much a lot of mix feelings inside. So for Lelouch, he hates it but he has no choice to do the same thing. More precisely, it's not no choice but he choose it. Just like last episode, he say he'll become evil to defeat the even bigger evil. Lelouch definitely hates evil right? He hates there're always unjustice around and people using power toward the weakling. But to win against those people he realize he need the power also and do the same thing he hates. He become the evil he hates very much. But he don't care as long as after his battle everything will follow like his ideal. Lelouch is someone who can achieve his goals by no mean, including the ways he hates. So he's embracing betrayal now but doesn't means that he don't hates it.